DB Today -Global/Macro


Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Craig Nicol

Europe - Focus Europe Special - Peter Sidorov

太阳网城上娱乐官网,    With today being something of landmark day then, this morning we’ve publisheda short Macro Bites taking a look at how markets and various assets haveperformed in the twelve months since Trump’s election victory. We don’t want togive too much away but it’s probably not a surprise to hear that the vast majorityof assets have seen positive total returns in that time. Indeed of the 41assets inour sample, 38have seen a positive return in USD terms. You’ll find the link tothe report in your inbox this morning. If not, email us for a copy.

    Euro area GDP grew 0.6% qoq in Q2, in line with expectations. This is a littlebelow the recent signal from SIREN-Momentum and real data models (c.0.8%)but is twice the trend rate of growth and maintains the run of robust euro areaGDP reports in recent quarters.

    German Equities - Weekly Fund Flows - Andreas Bruckner

    Credit Strategy - Early Morning Reid - Jim Reid

    Last week’s (Wed-Wed) review of funds’ in/outflows as % of funds’ AuM.Last week, investors committed more than $2billion of fresh money to totalreturn bond funds, which encompass a broad range of bond classes fromsovereign bund funds to corporate bonds. This was the largest weekly inflowfor the fund class in more than two years, buoyed by the pick of Powell,a relatively dovish candidate for the Federal Reserve chair. Investor appetitefor broad-based exposures could also be observed in the equity fund space,where diversified global equity funds trumped country-specific mandates. Withindeveloped markets, European and US equity funds suffered marginal outflowsfor the week, which for Europe meant first outflows in two months. Interestinglyhowever is the fact that actively managed equity funds in Europe have seenaround $10billion of steady inflows over the past six months, after what had been11/2years of continuous outflows. This has been a European phenomenon asactive flows into other major regions have continued trending lower.

    Ahead of the likely August lull, government bond yields fell across all regions andmaturities yesterday, with the German Bunds down to the lowest level since earlyJuly (2Y: -2bp; 10Y: -5bps). For other sovereigns, the Italian BTPs (2Y: -3bps; 10Y:

    -8bps) fell the most, followed by the OATs (2Y: -6bps; 10Y: -6bps) and Gilts (2Y:

    -1bps; 10Y: -2bps). The bund yield started higher in the morning, but fell ~5bp inthe afternoon to 0.49%. The change was similar to intraday falls in the UST 10Y,partly driven by the mixed US macro data and lower auto sales by US car markers(sales at GM -15% yoy). To be fair, as we type, UST 10Y yields have bounced backfrom the lows and is now ~1.5bp higher this morning.

    European Equity Strategy - Weekly Fund Flows - Andreas Bruckner

    Last week’s (Wed-Wed) review of funds’ in/outflows as % of funds’ AuM.Fundflow momentum slowed last week, after what had been unusually busy summerflows the previous week, when investors among other things cheered Yellen’sdovish speech to Congress by moving into bonds and EM equities. In the currentset of data, investors instead seem to have erred on the side of caution, as moneymarket funds absorbed $31billion of weekly inflows, a year-to-date high. Whilethe strong money market inflows dragged down flows into most other assetclasses, the outlook of a more benign pace of US monetary tightening meant thatemerging market funds comfortably extended their inflow streak to 19weeks,despite the 10th consecutive week of Chinese fund redemptions. Closer to home,European equity funds also managed to gain for the third week in a row, upslightly from the week prior on the largest weekly inflows since Macron's victoryin May. This helped European equity funds to surpass the $30billion watermarkof cumulative inflows year-to-date, after what had been more than $100billion ofredemptions in 2016. By contrast, US equity funds suffered their sixth consecutiveweek of outflows, the longest streak in more than a year, amassing outflows of$20billion since mid-June .

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